A football model that shows its work.
A probability and a fair price for every fixture in the big five. Every call is recorded before kickoff and graded afterwards — including the wrong ones.
Anyone can publish predictions. The test is whether the stated probabilities are honest: when this model says 45%, does it happen about 45% of the time? Each row is a band of confidence — the pale bar is what we said, the solid bar is what actually happened.
Buckets are the model's stated probability for the outcome it called. A model that is confident and wrong shows up here as a solid bar far short of its pale one — which is why this is the first thing on the page rather than a methodology footnote.
This round, league by league: the model's probability for each result, the outcome it calls, its most likely scoreline, and the fair price beneath each percentage — what that result is worth. Above that price there is value in it; below it there is not. We never see your book, so the comparison is yours to make.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Call | 1 | X | 2 | Expected xG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-10 | Arsenal | 1-0 |  Leeds United | 1 | 61% 1.65 | 23% 4.27 | 16% 6.29 | 1.81 – 0.71 | why → |
| 10-10 | Aston Villa | 1-0 |  Brentford | 1 | 36% 2.79 | 31% 3.23 | 33% 3.01 | 1.41 – 1.33 | why → |
| 10-10 | Chelsea | 1-1 |  Bournemouth | X | 38% 2.66 | 31% 3.23 | 31% 3.19 | 1.75 – 1.38 | why → |
| 10-10 | Ipswich Town | 1-2 |  Fulham | 2 | 31% 3.25 | 31% 3.26 | 39% 2.60 | 1.26 – 1.59 | why → |
| 10-10 | Manchester Utd | 1-0 |  Tottenham | 1 | 56% 1.79 | 25% 4.00 | 19% 5.21 | 1.71 – 0.78 | why → |
| 10-10 | Sunderland | 0-1 |  Brighton | 2 | 30% 3.30 | 29% 3.40 | 40% 2.48 | 1.05 – 1.37 | why → |
| 10-11 | Crystal Palace | 1-1 |  Nottingham | X | 38% 2.67 | 33% 3.01 | 29% 3.40 | 1.42 – 1.13 | why → |
| 10-11 | Hull City | 0-1 |  Everton | 2 | 32% 3.09 | 28% 3.57 | 40% 2.53 | 1.10 – 1.24 | why → |
| 10-11 | Liverpool | 1-2 |  Manchester City | 2 | 33% 3.05 | 29% 3.46 | 38% 2.61 | 1.36 – 1.49 | why → |
| 10-12 | Coventry City | 0-1 |  Newcastle | 2 | 31% 3.18 | 31% 3.24 | 38% 2.65 | 0.95 – 1.42 | why → |
Percentages are the model's probability; the smaller number is the fair price (1 ÷ probability). The called outcome is shaded. Scorelines are the most likely result given that call, not a prediction of the exact score. Played fixtures stay listed until the whole round is done. Data as of 2026-09-23.