Predictor

Every remaining fixture priced by the model, then the season replayed ten thousand times. Points already banked are kept; the rest is simulated. Each league is scored against its own European places and relegation shape — the two 18-team leagues have a play-off place that a simple “bottom three” would miss.

Ratings are frozen as of 2026-09-23, so a match in May is priced with today's strengths: no transfers or injuries are modelled, which makes title odds far more trustworthy than the exact gap between 14th and 15th. Cup winners' European routes and UEFA coefficient bonus places are not modelled either.

Premier Leagueprojected final table

Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueMid-tableRelegation

#	Team	Now	Exp. pts	Title	Europe	Danger	Season outlook	Playing for
1	Arsenal	12	77	43.4%	95.7%	—		Champions League90%
2	Manchester City	15	75.6	38%	93.7%	—		Champions League86%
3	Brighton	10	63.3	7.1%	68%	0.8%		Champions League49%
4	Liverpool	9	59.5	3.5%	53.1%	1.3%		Chasing Europe53%
5	Manchester Utd	5	57.7	2.1%	47.1%	2.2%		Chasing Europe47%
6	Brentford	9	55.6	1.6%	38.7%	3.2%		Chasing Europe39%
7	Leeds United	9	54.6	1.1%	35.4%	4.1%		Chasing Europe35%
8	Chelsea	7	53.6	0.9%	31.1%	5.5%		Chasing Europe31%
9	Bournemouth	3	51.8	0.7%	26.6%	7.3%		Chasing Europe27%
10	Everton	9	50.4	0.6%	20.8%	8.6%		Mid-table
11	Nottingham	5	47.3	0.3%	14.6%	14.2%		Drop-zone risk14%
12	Aston Villa	4	46.9	0.2%	13.4%	16.2%		Drop-zone risk16%
13	Newcastle	8	46.9	0.2%	13.3%	15.5%		Drop-zone risk16%
14	Sunderland	4	46.4	0.2%	13.2%	17.1%		Drop-zone risk17%
15	Crystal Palace	4	45.7	0.1%	11.2%	19.1%		Drop-zone risk19%
16	Fulham	2	44.1	0.1%	9.1%	22.8%		Drop-zone risk23%
17	Hull City	8	40.6	0.1%	5%	34.6%		Fighting relegation35%
18	Tottenham	2	40.5	—	4.6%	35%		Fighting relegation35%
19	Ipswich Town	6	39.6	—	3.7%	39.2%		Fighting relegation39%
20	Coventry City	3	36.1	—	1.8%	53.3%		Fighting relegation53%

La Ligaprojected final table

Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueMid-tableRelegation

#	Team	Now	Exp. pts	Title	Europe	Danger	Season outlook	Playing for
1	Barcelona	21	88.1	83.3%	100%	—		Champions League99%
2	Real Madrid	15	73.3	10.5%	95.9%	—		Champions League84%
3	Atlético Madrid	16	66.8	3.4%	85.9%	0.1%		Champions League61%
4	Real Betis	16	63.2	1.5%	75.5%	0.5%		Champions League44%
5	Villarreal	8	58.4	0.4%	60.4%	1.3%		Chasing Europe60%
6	Athletic Club	8	57.3	0.4%	54.6%	2.1%		Chasing Europe55%
7	Alavés	11	54.1	0.3%	42.9%	3.4%		Chasing Europe43%
8	Rayo Vallecano	8	50.5	0.1%	28.2%	7.9%		Chasing Europe28%
9	Real Sociedad	10	49.9	—	25.3%	8.4%		Chasing Europe25%
10	Sevilla	13	49.9	0.1%	24.9%	7.5%		Mid-table
11	Osasuna	8	47.6	—	18.3%	12%		Drop-zone risk12%
12	Levante	5	46.9	—	18.5%	13.9%		Drop-zone risk14%
13	Celta Vigo	7	46.5	—	16.6%	13.1%		Drop-zone risk13%
14	Dep. A Coruña	10	45.5	—	13.7%	15.1%		Drop-zone risk15%
15	Espanyol	7	44.2	—	11.8%	19.2%		Drop-zone risk19%
16	Valencia	4	42.1	—	8.3%	27.8%		Fighting relegation28%
17	Racing Sant	7	41.8	—	7%	29.6%		Fighting relegation30%
18	Elche	5	40.8	—	6.3%	31.8%		Fighting relegation32%
19	Getafe	8	40.3	—	5.5%	33.3%		Fighting relegation33%
20	Málaga	3	31	—	0.7%	73.1%		Fighting relegation73%

Serie Aprojected final table

Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueMid-tableRelegation

#	Team	Now	Exp. pts	Title	Europe	Danger	Season outlook	Playing for
1	Inter	13	80.5	41.6%	98.6%	—		Champions League91%
2	Roma	13	76.4	25.3%	96.1%	—		Champions League82%
3	Juventus	10	75.3	20%	96.2%	—		Champions League79%
4	Como	10	68.9	7.5%	85.5%	0.1%		Champions League55%
5	Napoli	7	63.1	2.4%	70.1%	0.4%		Chasing Europe70%
6	Milan	11	61.6	2.1%	64.4%	0.4%		Chasing Europe64%
7	Lazio	13	56.3	0.6%	42.8%	1.4%		Chasing Europe43%
8	Atalanta	6	51.1	0.1%	25%	5.2%		Chasing Europe25%
9	Sassuolo	7	50.5	0.2%	23.8%	5.5%		Mid-table
10	Cagliari	12	48.2	0.1%	16.1%	7%		Mid-table
11	Monza	4	47.7	0.1%	16.7%	9.6%		Mid-table
12	Frosinone	10	47.2	—	14.8%	8.6%		Mid-table
13	Bologna	2	46.3	—	13.8%	11.7%		Drop-zone risk12%
14	Fiorentina	4	44.9	—	11%	14.7%		Drop-zone risk15%
15	Udinese	4	44.7	—	10.3%	14%		Drop-zone risk14%
16	Torino	4	44	—	9.3%	16.1%		Drop-zone risk16%
17	Genoa	1	37.8	—	3%	35.9%		Fighting relegation36%
18	Lecce	6	34.9	—	1.2%	48.8%		Fighting relegation49%
19	Parma	4	32.7	—	0.8%	58.2%		Fighting relegation58%
20	Venezia	0	31.5	—	0.7%	62.3%		Fighting relegation62%

Bundesligaprojected final table

Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueMid-tableRelegation play-offRelegation

#	Team	Now	Exp. pts	Title	Europe	Danger	Season outlook	Playing for
1	Bayern Munich	10	75.1	64.5%	99.6%	—		Champions League96%
2	Dortmund	12	66.5	19.8%	94.6%	0.1%		Champions League80%
3	Leverkusen	7	60.8	7.6%	86.4%	0.3%		Champions League62%
4	RB Leipzig	6	56.5	3%	75.5%	0.6%		Champions League43%
5	Mainz 05	7	53.1	1.8%	62.5%	1.8%		Chasing Europe62%
6	Freiburg	10	50.2	1.2%	50.6%	2.9%		Chasing Europe51%
7	Stuttgart	3	50.2	0.7%	50.3%	3.6%		Chasing Europe50%
8	Hoffenheim	3	49.7	0.7%	48.8%	3.8%		Chasing Europe49%
9	Frankfurt	5	44.9	0.3%	29.9%	9.4%		Chasing Europe30%
10	Augsburg	7	42.6	0.2%	22.7%	12.9%		Drop-zone risk13%
11	Köln	4	42.4	0.1%	21.8%	14.5%		Drop-zone risk15%
12	Werder Bremen	7	40.9	0.1%	17.4%	17.7%		Drop-zone risk18%
13	Elversberg	7	39.4	—	13.8%	21.3%		Drop-zone risk21%
14	Schalke 04	5	35.2	—	6.1%	36%		Fighting relegation36%
15	Gladbach	0	34.4	—	5.5%	40.5%		Fighting relegation41%
16	Union Berlin	1	34.2	—	6%	43.2%		Fighting relegation43%
17	Paderborn 07	4	33.4	—	4.1%	43.8%		Fighting relegation44%
18	Hamburger SV	3	33.2	—	4.4%	47.6%		Fighting relegation48%

Ligue 1projected final table

Champions LeagueChampions League qualifyingEuropa LeagueConference LeagueMid-tableRelegation play-offRelegation

#	Team	Now	Exp. pts	Title	Europe	Danger	Season outlook	Playing for
1	PSG	8	66.7	46.1%	94.6%	—		Champions League79%
2	Lille	10	56.9	10.6%	68%	0.7%		Chasing Europe68%
3	Monaco	13	56.9	10.7%	67%	0.7%		Chasing Europe67%
4	Lens	4	56.5	9.4%	68.4%	0.5%		Chasing Europe68%
5	Lyon	11	55.4	8.9%	63%	0.9%		Chasing Europe63%
6	Paris FC	11	52.5	4.8%	49.8%	1.8%		Chasing Europe50%
7	Rennes	10	50.7	3.2%	41.2%	3.5%		Chasing Europe41%
8	Toulouse	5	48.1	1.8%	31.8%	4.9%		Chasing Europe32%
9	Marseille	3	47.7	1.7%	31.3%	5.9%		Chasing Europe31%
10	Strasbourg	7	46.1	1%	25%	8.2%		Chasing Europe25%
11	Brest	5	43.2	0.6%	16.8%	12.7%		Drop-zone risk13%
12	Lorient	5	42.3	0.5%	15.5%	15.2%		Drop-zone risk15%
13	Le Mans	6	39.5	0.3%	8.9%	23.1%		Drop-zone risk23%
14	Auxerre	6	39.2	0.1%	7.7%	25.2%		Fighting relegation25%
15	Nice	5	36.7	0.1%	4.7%	33.6%		Fighting relegation34%
16	Angers	7	35.3	0.1%	3.5%	39%		Fighting relegation39%
17	Le Havre	2	32.4	—	2.3%	52%		Fighting relegation52%
18	Troyes	4	28.3	—	0.6%	71.9%		Fighting relegation72%